MDBA 2025 Assurance Report: SDLAM Projects Facing Major Shortfall

In Short

Missed Targets:

The MDBA predicts a significant shortfall of between 255GL and 355GL of water due to incomplete state-led projects.

Strict Deadlines:

All Sustainable Diversion Limit (SDLAM) projects must be fully operational by December 31, 2026, to be counted toward the Basin Plan.

Final Say:

A draft determination on water limits will be released for public submission in late 2026 before a final decision by the Federal Water Minister.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority’s 2025 assurance report on the Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism (SDLAM) has found that significant work remains to deliver a number of outstanding SDLAM projects, and many projects will not be delivered in time or at all. 

The SDLAM has a strict deadline of December 31, 2026 under the Basin Plan, and for any projects to be counted they must be complete and operational. 

Murray-Darling Basin Authority Chief Executive, Andrew McConville said some of the smaller projects will be delivered, and they’ve delivered some great environmental outcomes, including Nari Nari Tribal Council’s Gayini Nimmie-Caira project west of Hay, the Chowilla floodplain in South Australia, and Hattah Lakes in Victoria. 

“However, we can clearly see that many of the significant projects will not be delivered and we can expect a shortfall compared to the 605 gigalitres a year determined in 2017,”

said Mr McConville. 

“The report includes a revised and reduced supply estimate of between 250 gigalitres to 350 gigalitres – this is a shortfall of between 255 gigalitres and 355 gigalitres. 

“The evidence base used to inform the report was obtained from the NSW, Victorian and South Australian state governments, who are responsible for implementing the projects. “The-final SDLAM supply contribution will be determined by the package of projects delivered by state governments, and continued collaboration will be essential to achieving the intended outcomes. 

“The Authority acknowledges their ongoing cooperation in implementing the Basin Plan and their contributions to this assurance report.” 

In 2026, the Authority will reconcile and determine the final supply contribution from the completed package of measures. 

“The MDBA will release a draft determination of the proposed Sustainable Diversion Limit (SDL) adjustment, and the public will have an opportunity to make submissions on the draft determination in late 2026,” said Mr McConville. 

The final reconciliation determination was provided to the Australian Government Minister for Water on December 31, 2026 for consideration and decision.