IN SHORT

• The United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, triggering a war now in its second week. Australia is not a participant in the fighting but has deployed military assets to help bring stranded Australians home from the Middle East.
• Australia has roughly 34 to 36 days of fuel in reserve — the highest level in 15 years — but panic buying has depleted some service stations and analysts warn petrol prices could rise by around 40 cents a litre as global oil markets react to the conflict.
• There are no food shortages on shelves at present. The risk to food prices is indirect and longer-term, flowing through higher transport costs — but farmers relying on diesel should ensure they are not running on empty.

A war that started on the other side of the world on February 28 is now being felt in Australian fuel prices, and there are legitimate questions about what it means for people living in places like Hay — far from a city, reliant on diesel, and dependent on supply chains that stretch a long way.

Here is a plain guide to what is happening and what it actually means for you.

The war is between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. It started when the US and Israel launched a military campaign — called Operation Epic Fury — striking targets inside Iran. Iran has been hitting back with missiles and drones aimed at Israel, Gulf countries including Dubai and Bahrain, and US military bases across the Middle East. The conflict is now in its second week and showing no sign of a quick resolution.

Australia is not fighting. Defence Minister Richard Marles has confirmed the country is not participating in the US and Israeli military actions. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has deployed military assets to the region, but solely to help bring home Australians stranded in the Middle East — not to engage in combat. The government has been explicit: no ground troops, no offensive action.

On fuel, the picture is more complicated. Australia entered this crisis in better shape than usual, with an estimated 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel and 32 days of jet fuel in reserve — the largest stockpile in 15 years. But that is still well below the international standard of 90 days, and the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow shipping route through which roughly one in five barrels of the world's oil travels — has effectively been shut down by the conflict. When that much oil stops moving, prices go up.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen has urged Australians not to rush to the service station. "I understand people's concerns, but it's vital that they know we have a good stock of petrol in Australia. There is no immediate danger to petrol supplies," he said. The reality on the ground, however, is already messier than that. Some service stations have run dry — not because Australia has run out of fuel, but because panic buying has outpaced the speed at which stations can be resupplied.

The problem has spread beyond retail. United Petroleum, one of Australia's largest independent fuel wholesalers and retailers, has suspended all customer allocations while it assesses its supply position. Tamworth-based Transwest Fuels, which supplies more than 2,000 farmers and agricultural customers, has declared it currently has zero petrol supply at Newcastle and Brisbane terminals. In regional NSW and Queensland, service stations in multiple towns have run out of fuel entirely as a result. One Queensland distributor reported being allocated just ten per cent of its usual daily supply from Brisbane.

Closer to home, NSW Farmers Association grains committee chairman Justin Everitt confirmed this week that fuel shortages were being felt throughout the Riverina. "Some service stations are out of fuel, and while you can generally find somewhere to fuel up your vehicle in a town like Albury it requires a bit of driving around, not to mention the massive hike in prices we've seen over the last week," he said. On bulk fuel orders, the picture is worse. "We're having some with orders they had placed not being supplied, others being offered partial supply — and again, this is just factoring in the supply side of things, not the massive extra costs these price rises will cause when going through thousands of litres of fuel."

Retail diesel prices have jumped to more than 225 cents a litre in many regional centres, up from around 175 cents before the US launched its offensive. Analysts say petrol prices could climb a further 40 cents a litre before the market settles. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has written to consumer watchdog the ACCC warning against price gouging.

The timing could not be worse for farmers. Everitt said the crisis has hit right as growers are looking to secure fuel and fertiliser for the autumn planting season. "Our farming seasons do not wait for bureaucrats or supply chains to catch up. If farmers miss their window, the production is lost for the year." Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MLC Mark Banasiak added a sharper warning, saying the NSW government had admitted it had done no modelling and had no plan to ensure farmers could access fuel during a supply disruption. "Agriculture runs on diesel. Without it, tractors stop, irrigation stops, harvest stops and food stops moving," he said.

The NRMA has urged motorists not to stockpile fuel at home, calling it economically pointless and physically dangerous. The message from every authority is the same: fill your normal tank, don't fill jerry cans, and don't make a manageable problem worse.

On food, there are no shortages on shelves right now. The Australian Retail Council has confirmed retailers have not reported supply chain issues at this stage. The risk to food is indirect — if fuel costs stay elevated, transport costs follow, and that eventually flows through to prices at the supermarket. That is a longer-term concern, not an immediate one.

The bottom line for Hay and the surrounding district is this. Fuel prices have already risen sharply and will likely go higher. Wholesale shortages are real — some Riverina service stations are already out of fuel and bulk orders are being partially filled or refused. Panic buying is making short-term availability worse, not better, so filling your usual tank is sensible and filling jerry cans to stockpile at home is not. For farmers heading into the autumn planting season, now is the time to check your on-farm diesel storage — not to hoard, but because the supply chain is genuinely under pressure and delays are real. Food supply is stable for now, but prices will follow fuel costs upward over coming weeks.

Australia is not at war. Prices are rising. The Riverina is already feeling the pinch on diesel. Get what you need — then leave some for your neighbours.