Can the Soufflé Rise? Farrer By-Election Ignites as PM Slams Liberal "Chaos" 

In Short

• The Catalyst: Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley's resignation has triggered a high-stakes by-election in the historically safe seat of Farrer, creating the first major test for new leader Angus Taylor.
• The "Soufflé" Barb: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has mocked the Liberal leadership transition, questioning if Taylor can "rise" while claiming the party is in "chaos" and has lost touch with voters.
• A "Messy" Contest: For the first time in decades, the National Party will challenge the Liberals in a three-cornered contest, alongside a strong Independent challenge from Michelle Milthorpe and a surging One Nation.

The Farrer by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley in February 2026, is shaping up to be a highly contested race.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has weighed in, commenting on what he described as the "chaos" within the Liberal Party..

Speaking at the NSW Labor Country Conference in Orange on Saturday (February 14, 2026), the Prime Minister took a jab at the new Liberal leadership.

Borrowing a famous insult from Paul Keating, Mr Albanese mocked the new Opposition Leader, asking: “Can a soufflé rise once?” referring to Angus Taylor’s sudden elevation after Ley’s ousting.

Mr Albanese has repeatedly stated that Sussan Ley was "undermined from day one" by her own colleagues. He said the Liberal Party has "completely lost touch" with voters and said the upcoming by-election in Farrer is a consequence of the Party’s in-fighting.

Declared Candidates and Parties

Michelle Milthorpe (Independent)

Public Statement: Milthorpe, who ran second in the 2025 election, has vowed to "finish what we started." She stated that the electorate deserves better than being a "second-thought in party politics" and said that "Farrer’s future cannot be an afterthought to party politics."

Focus: Her campaign will focus on local issues including cost-of-living, access to health and aged care (specifically the Albury-Wodonga hospital redevelopment), sustainable environmental practices, and climate and energy issues.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON)

Public Statement: Senator Pauline Hanson and One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce have confirmed the party will run a candidate.

Focus: While a specific candidate for Farrer has not yet been named, the party is campaigning on its national platform of scrapping net zero energy policies, addressing immigration levels, and tackling the cost of living.One Nation has released an Expression of Interest on the Facebook page.

The National Party

Public Statement: Following the end of the Coalition agreement that prevented the Nationals from running against Ley while she held the seat, the party has signaled it is certain to run.

Focus: National MP Kevin Hogan stated that a three-cornered contest (Liberal vs. National vs. Labor/Independent) is healthy and that the seat is now "open for both parties to run."

The Liberal Party

Public Statement: As the party currently holding the seat, the Liberals will run a candidate to defend it. This will be the first major electoral test for new leader Angus Taylor, who took over from Ley.

Focus: Taylor has signaled a policy shift toward "lowering the rate of immigration" and a focus on core Liberal beliefs.

Potential/Likely Participants

Labor Party (ALP)

Analysts suggest Labor may sit out the contest to let conservative and independent candidates battle it out, as they have not reached a quarter of the primary vote in the region since 2007. However, no formal withdrawal has been announced. Political analyst Antony Green has suggested Labor might "sit out" the contest. By not running, Labor could avoid a poor showing in a conservative stronghold while allowing the Liberal, National, and One Nation candidates to divide the right-wing vote, potentially helping the Independent, Michelle Milthorpe.

Minor Parties

Analysts expect a messy contest similar to 2001, potentially involving parties like the Libertarians, Shooters Fishers and Farmers, and Family First, who have contested the seat in recent general elections.