In 2024, Ukrainian agricultural exporters achieved impressive results. They sold goods worth US$24.5 billion. This is the second best result in the entire history of Ukrainian agriculture.

The victory was achieved despite many problems and thanks to intensive improvement of agriculture. The war became the main driver of competitiveness for Ukrainian farmers.

Victory in spite of all the problems

Image: The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine

2024 was the best year for Ukrainian agricultural exports since the beginning of the war. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2024, Ukraine exported agricultural products worth US$24.5 billion. Agricultural exports accounted for 59 per cent of total exports. This is the second highest figure in the entire history of Ukraine’s independence. More was exported only in 2021. Then, exports amounted to US$27.7 billion.1 Before the war, Ukraine annually exported agricultural goods worth US$22 billion.

In total, in 2024, Ukraine exported 78.3 million tons of agricultural products. Sunflower oil accounts for the largest share of exports – 21 per cent. Almost 6 million tons of this product were exported for US$5.1 billion. Corn is in second place. Corn accounts for 21 per cent of total exports. A total of 29.6 million tons of corn worth US$5 billion were exported. Wheat is in third place – 15 per cent; 20.6 million tons of wheat worth $3.7 billion were exported. Rapeseed is also among the leaders – 7 per cent of total exports. Over the year, 3.8 million tons of rapeseed worth US$1.8 billion were sold at the border. Soybeans accounted for 5 per cent of total exports. This amounted to 3.4 million tons and US$1.3 billion. Oilcakes and residues obtained during the extraction of vegetable fats and oils provided 4 per cent of exports. This amounts to 4.7 million tons worth US$1 billion. The share of meat and edible poultry products was 4 per cent; 447 thousand tons of these products were exported, worth a total of US$958 million. Barley accounted for 2 per cent of exports. A total of 3.3 million tons of barley were sold, worth a total of US$557 million. Sugar also accounted for 2 per cent of exports; 746 thousand tons of sugar were exported, worth US$418 million.

The result of 2024 is surprising. Of course, the foundations of Ukrainian agriculture were created in pre-war times. At that time, 17 per cent of the working population worked in Ukrainian agriculture, 70 per cent of agricultural products were exported and the agricultural sector provided 19 per cent of the national GDP.

However, the war has greatly weakened Ukrainian agriculture. The total losses of Ukrainian agriculture due to the war with Russia amounted to US$80 billion. Of these, direct losses amount to US$13 billion. Agricultural exports suffered especially badly. This happened due to the cessation of Ukrainian ports. Sea transport was the most effective way to export Ukrainian agricultural goods. The need to attract road and rail transport increased the cost of transporting agricultural exports. The cost of transporting one ton of agricultural products increased from US$30 to US$100 dollars!4

But the war and the closure of ports are not the only problem. Ukrainian agriculture had vices that were formed even before the war. One of the main vices is the export of low-processed products. Because of this, the average cost of 1 ton of exported Ukrainian agricultural products is only US$309. But in other countries this price is higher. For example, in Poland the average cost of an exported ton of agricultural products is US$1,560, in Hungary this value is US$1,040, in France US$1,440.5

Increased transportation costs, losses due to military actions, low cost of exported products and some other reasons limit the opportunities of Ukrainian farmers. The production of some types of agricultural products is unprofitable. This includes exported grain.

This is what the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine says about the profitability of crop production: “Based on the results of 2024, a higher level of profitability of crop production is expected compared to the previous forecast. The profitability of sunflower is expected at the level of [US]$45 per ton (-4 USD / t in 2023), soybeans – at the level of [US]$83 per ton (69 USD / t in 2023), rapeseed – at the level of [US]$78 per ton (5 USD / t in 2023). Unfortunately, grain production will remain unprofitable.”6

However, despite this difficult situation and many problems, Ukrainian exporters achieved excellent results in 2024.

What is the reason for this?

The reason for the success is in the complex of measures taken by the Ukrainian government and farmers. The war forced market participants to work effectively. Those who cannot do this will go bankrupt. The secrets of the victory are revealed by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine.

Here is what is said about it on the website of the ministry: “Ukraine is actively working on updating its export strategy, taking into account new opportunities and challenges arising from the tougher EU policy towards Ukrainian agricultural products. Therefore, it is now important to strengthen the competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural products in international markets, agricultural producers need to adapt to EU requirements and standards, it is also important to reorient sales markets, find new ones and expand the geography of exports. In addition, to develop the production of agricultural products with added value, which will help increase income.”

In addition, the Ukrainian government is doing a lot of political work. After all, political obstacles are one of the problems for the development of Ukrainian agricultural exports. European farmers have a negative attitude towards the increase in Ukrainian exports. The concerns of European farmers are supported by foreign countries that seek to reduce Ukrainian agricultural exports. In this context, Ukrainian politicians lobby the interests of Ukrainian farmers. The Ukrainian government openly says that increasing exports to the EU is the main goal and this should be supported by European politicians.

“If we jointly process products and build logistics routes, the EU will rise from fourth place in terms of export volume to second place. Together we will be even stronger and stronger. The enemy does not like this, so the enemy spreads negative narratives about the Ukrainian agricultural business. Meanwhile, without losing unity and taking into account the interests of our farmers, we continue to confidently move towards the European family,” said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval.

At the same time, attempts are being made to improve Ukrainian agriculture. This is mainly done through various laws. The legislative activity of the Ukrainian government corresponds to the trends of agriculture and wartime.

In 2024, Ukrainian officials actively fought against the gray export of agricultural products, including grain. We wrote about this problem in March 2024 in the article “The Ukrainian grain market withstood a coordinated attack from friends and enemies”.

Almost a year has passed. But gray export schemes and dumping prices are still relevant. To prevent this, the Ukrainian government made several new laws in 2024. A law on minimum prices for exported agricultural products was created. This law introduces minimum prices for honey, nuts in shells, and nuts without shells, wheat, rye, barley, oats, corn, soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, soybean oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and oilcake.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted in a statement: “The introduction of laws on minimum prices for agricultural exports will create mechanisms to combat the shadow export of grain and oilseeds. And will establish clear rules for all market participants. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy is currently developing appropriate tools for applying these laws. In particular, minimum prices after the laws come into force will be determined on the basis of the developed methods on the 10th of every month”.

The Ukrainian government is also tightening controls and restricting the export of agricultural products. For this purpose, a law was created on licensing and quotas for the export of certain types of agricultural products. It is noteworthy that this law actually prohibits the export of salt from Ukraine. The country has a shortage of this product, since Russian troops have captured the largest salt deposit in the Donetsk region. Therefore, the quota for salt exports in 2025 is 0 tons! Similar export quotas have been introduced for other goods.

Sugar quota – 107,238.62 tons. A licence is required for export to the EU. Meat and edible offal of poultry: domestic chickens (Gallus domesticus), ducks, geese, guinea fowl quota volume 55,536.17 tons. Turkey meat and edible offal of turkeys quota volume 1,565 tons. A licence is also required for export of these goods to the EU. Licensing is introduced until June 5, 2025.

The export of wheat and a mixture of wheat and rye (meslin), corn, rapeseed or colza seeds, sunflower seeds is not subject to quotas. But it is licensed. A licence is required if the country of destination of the goods is the Republic of Bulgaria, Romania, the Slovak Republic, Hungary and the Republic of Poland, regardless of the country of registration of the non-resident counterparty under the foreign trade contract.

In addition to setting minimum prices, quotas and licenses, the Ukrainian government has decided to take control of the logistics of agricultural exporters. This includes improving customs declarations and creating open registers of certificates and exporters of agricultural products. This is being done to combat the shadow grain market.13

Due to the measures taken, some victories have been achieved, but the situation remains difficult.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted in a statement: “To date, as a result of the fight of the Bureau of Economic Security against the shadow turnover of agricultural products, UAH 1.3 billion has already been received by the budget. At the same time, this year more than 5 million tons were exported with signs of risk of non-return of foreign exchange earnings. It is important for us to reduce these risks and create equal conditions for everyone.”

In 2025, the improvement of the Ukrainian agricultural market will continue. After all, the situation remains difficult and requires constant improvement of business. Based on forecasts, the coming year will not be easy for Ukrainian farmers.

In 2025, the volume of Ukrainian agricultural exports may decrease.

Here is the forecast.

Grain exports in 2025 may be 40.3 million tons, which is 66.7 per cent of the total supply. Wheat will be exported at 16.2 million tons, barley at 2.9 million tons, corn at 20.5 million tons, and other grain and leguminous crops at about 0.7 million tons.

Oilseed exports may be 6.6 million tons. It is planned to export 3.7 million tons of soybeans and 2.9 million tons of rapeseed.

In addition, almost all sunflower seeds (99.5 per cent of the total supply) will be processed on the domestic market. The volume of sunflower seeds will be 10.9 million tons. Sunflower oil production may be at the level of 4.9 million tons.14

As we can see, after the 2024 record, there may be a slight decline in sales volumes. But this will only be another obstacle for Ukrainian farmers who will accept the test of fate with dignity.

After all, Ukrainian farmers have learned the main lesson of the war well and live by the motto “Everything that does not kill us makes us stronger.”

This story was contributed by Australian Rural and Regional News